The best indicator for the beginning of our contemporary interglacial* is sea level rise - which started ~20,000 years ago, when the last (real) ice age** had ended.
*
Sea level rise is constantly trumpeted about the situation of today but
carefully avoided about the past as the marker of the beginning of our
contemporary interglacial. Do also consider the important difference
between the easily recognizable major effects of Milankovitch cycles,
and the lesser "noise" caused by random events such as volcanism and
space debris. Moreover, in the last 3 million years the tectonic map has
stayed practically the same, so only sea level variations have managed
to alter the terrestrial map.
** Most people are also
(deliberately?!) made confused about ice ages because the term is used
for everything between the ~50 million year cooling period from Eocene
to now, as well as for the short Younger Dryas cooling between
12,900-11,700 years BP.
Since the tectonic events in Eocene leading to the glaciation of
Antarctica, the temperature of the Earth has gone down and culminating
in the characteristic oscillations after ~3.5 Ma caused by the narrowing
of the Caribbean ocean flow and eventual stop (Panama isthmus) which
caused the AMOC (Gulf Stream) on a bigger scale interacting with the
Milankovitch cycles (on a smaller scale there has of course been many
changes to the AMOC due to melt water pulses/Heinrich events etc.).
Sea
level rise is a slightly delayed - due to time needed for enough
melting to trigger it in any notable way - starting point for an
interglacial. In our case it happened ~20,000 years ago, i.e. we may be
already overdue compared to previous interglacials. It's important to
distinguish between the "heavy lifting" of the periodical Milankovitch
cycles and random terrestrial events like volcanism, impact from space
debris etc.
Although AMOC (aka Gulf Stream) has collapsed many
times during interglacials (compare Heinrish events, melst water pulses
etc.) it's only when the Milankovitch cycle coincides with it when a new
and inevitable ice age starts building up. As Peter Klevius has
explained it (first in the world again? - sad isn't it*): Although the
Antarctic ice sheet was created by tectonics already during Eocene,
Greenland's ice sheet was a late comer and a product of tectonics
closing the ocean flow between South and North America, which came to a
complete stop some 3 million years ago. According to Peter Klevius
(first again?!), this caused the evolutionary jump from apes to Homos -
just like the icing of Antarctica caused the evolution of Simians - all
due to sea level fluctuations in the SE Asian archipelago. see
During the last glacials/interglacials the
Greenland ice sheet has become ever more persistent to a point where
interglacials leave it mostly covered with ice into the next glacial
(ice age). This explains the increasing amplitude because the Earth
tries to go back to its "normal" temperature but gets repeated
"backlashes" due to the insolation effect of Antarctica and Greenland,
combined with Milankovitch periodicity - which no one fully understand
the complexity of as yet.
* Even a child could have done it
with the same info - and lacking the blindfolding bias of PC "science"
and other disinformation spreaders.
The
biggest misunderstanding among many ill-informed is that we have plenty
of time to the next real ice age (i.e. glacial - not to be confused
with "little ice ages") when in fact we are already on the brink. The
last glacial ended some 20,000 years ago which is approximately the same
as previous inter-glacials. Moreover, everything point to the long term
weakening of the AMOC as part of the looming ice age trigger. We might
even have prolonged our interglacial with our increasing activities
during Holocene. Against this background it's plain stupid to suggest
stopping insolation.
Ironically it's the warming of the Arctic
that shows up as the chilling expansion of the polar vortex, which in
turn triggers longterm snow and ice cover phenomenons (as possibly
already seen in Mongolia etc.), which then decrease insolation. Exactly
what causes the Arctic warming isn't known but Peter Klevius qualified
guess is that it is triggered by higher altitude (e.g. tropospheric)
changes due to hitherto poorly understood Milankovitch cycle effects.
After all, interglacials return in a distinct repetitive pattern that
can't be explained by terrestrial phenomenons nor random volcanism or
falling space objects.
Although most decent climatologists
understand that the long term (since Eocene) cooling of Earth is due to
tectonics like the African and Indian plates movements which started the
glaciation of Antarctica, less attention has been put to how the
closing of the Caribbean caused the glaciation of Greenland, especially
the fact that Greenland as a result has got an ever increasing
resistance against melting during interglacials, to the point that we
now, after some 20,000 years, and on the verge of the next ice age, have
practically the whole of Greenland still under ice and snow. Although
Younger Dryas may have contributed, there's no doubt that the trend can
be seen already in previous interglacials (see what Peter Klevius wrote
below).
Unlike the slow warming up, cooling could be extremely
swift. And the South will of course not get much colder although much
drier, when Northern Eurasia and North America will experience extreme
temperature drops. Although the buildup of glacials takes a much longer
time, ice age temperature can come in no time.
Milankovitch cycles
The dip at ~3.5 Ma may indicate the starting point for Homo
The cooling steps are in perfect harmony with Peter Klevius out of SE Asian archipelago evolution analysis.
The Bølling-Allerød, Younger Dryas, or Holocene did not indicate any starting point of our contemporary interglacial. This fake graph is either made out of ignorance or deliberately made to confuse ignorant viewers. LGM ended around 20,000 bp. However, here the outdated concept of Holocene - which started around 11,000 bp - is used although it has nothing to do with our interglacial because Younger Dryas - probably caused by massive volcanism - was just a short interruption in the overall warming trend.
Peter Klevius wrote:
Peter Klevius opposite reading and correction of Greenland data compared to researchers biased with climate hysteria.
Greenland's glaciation was created as a consequence of the closing of the Caribbean ocean flow which led to ever more ice accumulation during the last four ice ages.
Read how two craniopagus twins born 2006 solved the "greatest mystery in science" - and proved Peter Klevius theory från 1992-94 100% correct.
During Marine Isotope Stage 11, between 424,000 to 374,000 years ago the ice sheet hadn't reached full levels as yet and much of Greenland’s ice melted ca 8,000 years after the previous ice age which ended 416,000 years ago. We are some 20,000 years from the starting point of our interglacial.
Peter Klevius wrote:
Peter Klevius global cooling warning: We are fools if we don't prepare for a sudden start of the next ice age which is already overdue and abundant with red flags!
According to Peter Klevius research, it was the Gulfstream that caused the Eurasian snow cover which together with Milankovich cycles explains the onset of the last ice ages. Cooling via a thin but longer lasting snow cover can trigger the next ice age extremely quickly - global warming can not!
It's the very existence of the Antarctic glacier after the Eocene maximum and the Greenland glacier after around 20 Ma - when the Caribbean first started to disrupt the free ocean flow between South- and North America - that functions as a "capacitor" which explains why the global cooling gets worse over time. Antarctic glaciation was a consequence of ocean circulation and Greenland because of the Gulfstream (see text below).
If you blindly follow CO2 - which you shouldn't - no glacial inception is projected to occur at the current atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 390 ppmv. Indeed, model experiments suggest that in the current orbital configuration—which is characterized by a weak minimum in summer insolation—glacial inception would require CO2 concentrations below preindustrial levels of 280 ppmv. However, CO2 increase in the past interglaciations was a consequence of a diminished snow cover over Northern Eurasia which led to increase in vegetation and CO2 before glaciation. Whereas glaciers need a long time to melt, snow melts immediately when temperature allows - including warm rain that can melt much colder snow. And immediately when the snow disappears, vegetation starts to grow. This is why ice core information based on glaciers has a delay which makes it appear that CO2 could be initially involved - which it wasn't because first the snow had to melt. *
* Low altitude cloud cover closely follows cosmic ray
flux; that the galactic cosmic ray flux has the periodicities of the
glacial/interglacial cycles; that a decrease in galactic cosmic ray flux
was coincident with Termination II; and that the most likely initiator
for Termination II was a consequent decrease in Earth’s albedo. The
temperature of past interglacials was higher than today most likely as a
consequence of a lower global albedo due to a decrease in galactic
cosmic ray flux reaching the Earth’s atmosphere. In addition, the
galactic cosmic ray intensity exhibits a 100 kyr periodicity over the
last 200 kyr that is in phase with the glacial terminations of this
period. Carbon dioxide appears to play a very limited role in setting
interglacial temperature.
Whereas
interglaciations are characterized by exceeding precipitation, ice ages
are arid. So contrary to "global warming warnings", we should prepare
for every next year possibly being the last before the steep fall into
the next ice age.
Since farmers started clearing land for plants
and flooded fields to grow rice while cattle breeders began to raise
livestock, they also contributed to altering the climate - long before
the industrial revolution - of which led to a rise in the atmospheric
emission of carbon dioxide and methane. Without this human influence,
and the following Industrial Revolution, Earth may already been headed
for the next ice age.
However, the pressure from the natural
oscillations is overwhelming any human activity when considering the
effect of a volcano eruption in the midst of present interglacial 12,880
bp which managed to trigger the Younger Dryas - which climate hysterics
now wrongly use to call "the last ice age" and therefore equally
wrongly implying we have plenty of time before the next ice age.
The science of snow cover
An
anomalous “north-south” dipole mode of the snow water equivalent (SWE)
persisting from winter to spring in the Eurasian mid-to-high latitudes
contributes to prolonged winter-springtime coldness in midlatitude
Eurasia and is closely linked to the declining November Arctic sea ice
concentration over the Barents-Laptev Seas which can induce a
teleconnection pattern over the mid-to-high latitudes in the following
winter, accompanied by an anomalous ridge over the Ural Mountains and an
anomalous trough over Europe and East Asia. Such changes in the
large-scale circulation lead to more cold surges and heavy snowfall in
the midlatitudes and light snowfall in the high latitudes, forming an
anomalous north-south dipole mode of the SWE, which further reduces the
temperature through thermodynamic feedback. Due to seasonal memory, this
SWE pattern can persist into the following spring and can lead to
springtime midlatitude coldness via thermodynamic and dynamic processes
for which the anomalous SWE condition can lead to anomalous wet soil,
reduced incoming surface solar radiation, and cooling air in the
midlatitudes. This phenomenon induces an enhanced Siberian high and a
deepened East Asian trough via the snow-Siberian high-feedback
mechanism, which favors a cold spring in northern East Asia.
This
mechanism interacts with the Milankovich cycles in a pattern that,
although not fully understood, is visible in the increased amplitude of
regular glacial-interglacial oscillations in the Pleistocene after the
Panama isthmus closed entirely. This closing led to the strengthening of
the Gulfstream or Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
(AMOC)—one of Earth’s major ocean circulation systems which has a major
impact on the climate of especially Northern Europe.
Peter Klevius' simplified climate model based on facts we already have:
1.
Earth's temperature has steadily gone down since Eocene 50 Ma due to
tectonics disturbing the ocean flow between Africa and Eurasia while
opening up the ocean flow around Antarctica which turned it from green
to an all covering glacier.
2. The oscillations have steadily
increased in amplitude with top temperature stabilizing while ice age
temperatures continue to fall.
3. The mechanism behind changing
Pliocene-Pleistocene oscillations is due to a combination of a) the
closing of the Caribbean ocean flow which triggered the Gulfstream more
strongly to the North, and b) snow cover or lack thereof over Northern
Eurasian lowland, and c) Milankovitch cycles.
4. The latest pattern started around 3 Ma which is exactly when the Homo lineage appeared - see:
https://peterklevius.blogspot.com/2023/01/how-pliocene-pleistocene-panama-isthmus.html
Peter Klevius wrote:
Wednesday, May 9, 2018
Klevius predicts: Singularity will arrive sooner than most expect - but a new iceage may start even sooner.
Have humans prolonged the onset* of the next ice-age to a breaking point?
* Do realize the treacherous behavior of snow cover. It can be extremely thin while the reflective effect is still 100%. It can jump in and out of meteorological records without being always noticed (in Sweden no records are kept after mid May). It can expand even when temperature goes up, due to increased precipitation in cold but usually dry areas. And snow cover can expand horizontally thousands of kilometer in no time.
Updated map 2021:
caused activities) must have some effect on the atmosphere - although this effect could suddenly drown in other "natural" effects (compare the butterfly flapping a hurricane).
Klevius analysis (from from the 1980s and on the web 2006): The Gulf stream is loosing stamina, meaning more snow cover lingering longer. This leads to extremely fast onset of cooling and due glaciation. A reported 15% decrease means we're in for cooling business. Changing rotational axis etc. longterm phenomenon can easily be outperformed in a shortterm scenario through local changes in precipitation combined with just a slight drop in temperature. Fennoscandia, northern Russia and Canada constitute such potentials (compare previous little and big ice-ages), especially at a time when we've already passed the usual tipping point.
We are way overdue with the coming of the next ice-age. Could it really be that we during Holocene have managed to keep it at bay? In Klevius book Demand for Resources (1992) he also wondered why humans didn't become modern already at the previous heat peak some 120 kyr ago? The big skulls were already there. Today Klevius theory on human evolution has the answer.
Due to the polemic nature of the mostly bi-facial approach to climate change, facts are either exaggerated or toned down. So for example, is the relation between the hemispheres often hidden as global or even presented with a confusing mix of Celcius and Fahrenheit for the sole purpose of "weighing" a certain stand point.
Indian ocean is the only one disconnected from the north and therefore reflects what Klevius wrote about 2006.
Snow cover is the opposite to CO2 - but much quicker.
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